Brad O'Connor directly addresses camera: Florida Realtors has just released its housing market statistics for the first month of 2023, and for the most part, they show a continuation of the market conditions we were facing in the last few months of 2022.
Let's begin by looking at closed sales of existing single-family homes, where over the past year we've seen homebuyer demand eroded by the rise of the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from about 3 percent to more than 6 percent. Compared to one year ago, single-family home sales this January were down by 32-and-a-half percent, which, believe it or not, was the smallest year-over-year decline we've had since last October. Given that interest rates remain twice as high as they were a year ago, however, this significant decline in sales is not altogether surprising.
The level of closed single-family home sales we're seeing has, in recent months, been tracking just below the level of sales we were seeing about four years ago, prior to the pandemic. That was still the case in January, with closed sales being only about 5% less than the number we had in January of 2019.
Over in the townhouse and condo category, the year-over-year decline in January closed sales was even steeper, but also not unexpected, given recent trends. Closed sales in this category were down by nearly 41% compared to a year ago. And compared to four years ago, in January of 2019, this January's sales were down by almost 10%.
High mortgage rates are not only affecting homebuyers, though. They're also discouraging some potential sellers from listing their homes for sale, as well - particularly those who would be selling their primary residence and would therefore have to finance their next home at these higher rates. As a result, the level of new listings we've seen in recent months has been below normal. That trend also continued into January. New listings of existing single-family homes for sales were down about 5% compared to a year ago.
Over in the townhouse and condo category, by comparison, the year-over-year decline in new listings was more modest, at 2.4%. So it's important to remember that while these high interest rates are discouraging *some* potential sellers from listing their homes for sale, not *all* of them are. 
Now, let's take a look at the end-of-month inventory levels. At the end of January, the number of single-family homes actively listed for sale in Florida's multiple listing services was more than double what is was a year ago, rising by over 134%. As significant an increase as that is, though, it's worth noting that on a statewide basis, we still have a ways to go to get back to pre-pandemic inventory levels. Notably, though, this varies from market to market, and by the way, in most parts of Florida, we were considered to have an inventory shortage *before* the pandemic, so even returning to those levels means we're still falling short of a truly balanced market.
Inventory levels in townhouse and condo category, meanwhile, were up 90% at the end of January on a year-over-year basis, but as was the case for single-family inventory levels, they were still well short of pre-pandemic levels.
The ratio of active buyers to active sellers is the most important determinant of housing prices. When this ratio is high, you have widespread bidding wars that drive up prices. That's what we experienced from mid-2020 until the midpoint of last year. But with mortgage rates dousing our hot demand levels over the course of the past year, that ratio has fallen, and therefore, price growth has cooled off. However, because these high mortgage rates have discouraged potential buyers *and* potential sellers, this shift in the ratio of active buyers to active sellers has only resulted in a deceleration of overall home price growth, not a full reversal. The median sale price for closed existing single-family home sales in Florida this January came in at nearly $390,000, which is still 4% higher than last January's median price. And over in the townhouse and condo category, the median price grew by almost 9%, up to $310,000.
We've covered the state as a whole in this video, but what about your particular market area? Well, you can certainly check out how your market compares to the state overall if you're a member of Florida Realtors. As always, you can find your local area statistics at floridarealtors.org/research, or through our interactive web application, SunStats, which you can find at sunstats.floridarealtors.org. See you all next month.